My how things have changed. Since April of 2018 when I wrote my first blog post on a conjectural Division I USL, followed by months of doing nothing on the blog, the entire lower-division environment shifted. NASL stayed dead and decided to sue USSF. MLS expanded with the announcement of FC Cincinnati and the long-awaited, we're serious this time, announcement of Inter Miami. And USL not only announced expansion but started a whole new Division 3 league and re-branded with a new mini-pyramid. American soccer is great ain't it.
Knowing that my first attempt at a D1 USL has now been rendered to Turtledovian levels of alternate history, I thought it best to rethink the whole thing. Could USL become a competing Division I league?
First let's look at the USL teams that we're about to bid adieu to in the not-too-distant future.
Nashville SC - The Music City's soccer club will be departing to the majors next season with a stadium on the way. One down.
St. Louis FC - During the 2018 MLS Cup Final, Commissioner Don Garber let slip what we've all known to be a fact since...well...forever, that MLS is looking to expand beyond 28 teams. I have a blog in the hopper on that subject specifically but suffice it to say, MLS is going to 30 teams at least and St. Louis has long been a target of MLS expansion and/or relocation. With a female-led ownership group worth the gross national product of some small countries and a strong stadium plan, St. Louis will be crossing the gateway into MLS sooner rather than later.
Phoenix - If there's one city that MLS should crave, it's the Arizona capital. Untapped major market? Check! Strong ownership group? Check! Stadium plan? Check! Phoenix is a shoe-in for MLS.
Sacramento Republic - Before FC Cincinnati was setting lower-league attendance records and busted down the door into MLS, there was the Republic. In recent years the Republic have been a bridesmaid for MLS expansion but the addition of Ron Burkle (owner of the Pittsburgh Penguins) to the ownership group should give the Republic the whale it needs to claim a spot in MLS.
So with four of the league's largest markets gone, what would USL have to do to develop a Division 1 league? For starters, the league needs to stop the bleeding. Cities like Charlotte, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay and San Antonio need to stay in the league if they have any hope of bidding for Division 1. Sure, Louisville is doing great things for the league with strong attendance, a stadium plan, and a committed ownership group; but a Division 1 league is going to need bigger markets. Losing Charlotte, Indy and/or Tampa Bay (all possible) to a 32-team MLS isn't going to help matters.
For the sake of argument let's say USL keeps the Rowdies, Independence and XI, what's next? Expand of course!
While USL currently has several ownership groups and clubs that could (in theory) meet Division 1 standards, the league would do well to expand to other major cities to maximize its chances of courting D1-capable ownership. So here are a few suggested targets.
- Detroit - Currently the largest market in the nation without a professional soccer team, and having seen its MLS expansion bid seemly stall, the Motor City should be one of the top markets for USL expansion. Before you put on your skull bandanna, light off a smoak bomb and claim that the city is taken, be aware that Detroit City, for all the good things they've done, would not be a threat to a strong USL team. A big-time owner (there are plenty in Detroit) with good marketing would easily take over the market. Perhaps USL could court Gilbert and Gores and allow the new USL team to play in Ford Field.
- San Diego - Another instance of an MLS bid stalling could be a boon for USL. San Diego is the 28th largest media market in the country and currently has no professional soccer team. With the loss of Sacramento, USL would be wise to place another team in California.
- Baltimore - Baltimore has been courted by USL throughout the years and getting the No. 26 media market in the fold would be a big "get" for the league.
And in no particular order, here are a few more markets that USL should target for our hypothetical Division 1 league:
- Cleveland*
- Milwaukee
- Oakland*
- Norfolk
- Long Island/New Jersey
- Jacksonville
- *already rumored.
Additionally, Hartford, Pittsburgh, Indy XI, Louisville City, Las Vegas, North Carolina, Oklahoma City, San Antonio FC and Orange County would be promoted to the D1 league.
So our new D1 USL League could look like this:
Baltimore
Charlotte Independence
Cleveland
Detroit
Hartford Athletic
Indy XI
Jacksonville
Las Vegas Lights
Long Island/New Jersey
Louisville City
Milwaukee
Norfolk
North Carolina FC
Oakland
OKC Energy
Orange County SC
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
San Antonio FC
San Diego
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Charlotte Independence
Cleveland
Detroit
Hartford Athletic
Indy XI
Jacksonville
Las Vegas Lights
Long Island/New Jersey
Louisville City
Milwaukee
Norfolk
North Carolina FC
Oakland
OKC Energy
Orange County SC
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
San Antonio FC
San Diego
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Format: Since there are 20 teams, a straight round-robin schedule should work perfectly for a 38-game season. Crowning a champion based on straight standings would also differentiate the league from MLS. In other words, no playoffs.
Promotion and Relegation: I'm firmly on the "anti" side of the pro/rel argument in the US. I happen to think that implementation of the system would be detrimental to the game here, however, I'm willing to be proven wrong. One of my core beliefs is that if the system is to be implemented, it should be by the leagues and not forced upon the leagues by an outside entity such as FIFA or USSF. That being said, in this fantasy world, USL has already set up an entire pyramid and pro/rel could be attempted within this framework. Although, for safety's sake, I would limit it to one team going down and one going up each season.
Could it work?: There's the rub. Each of the cities listed, with the right ownership and stadium plan, could support D1 soccer. Will they? We don't know. But that's what speculative fiction is all about. The "what ifs" of life. The beauty of the US system is that soccer isn't beholden to its governing body the same way that teams in Europe are. If another league wants to come along and build a better mousetrap or prove that their business model is the best way forward, they're free to try. To be frank, I'd love to see USL head down this path. Who knows? In 50 or 60 years we might have two D1 leagues living separate lives only to meet in the US Open Cup and a co-branded championship. Until then, one can only speculate.
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