A long time ago I wrote a blog about a possible Division 1 USL that would one day run parallel to Major League Soccer. It was speculative fiction to say the least but thought experiments are a lot of fun. In the time since that fateful blog post, a lot has changed in American soccer from the top to the bottom of the ladder. For USL specifically, the landscape has seen a tectonic shift with no signs of stopping.
Since the beginning of the 2017 campaign, two USL teams/cities have been selected to become MLS expansion teams with the USL's flagship franchise, FC Cincinnati, starting play in the big leagues in 2019.
Judging by the shitposting about FC Cincinnati on social media and the USL subreddit, some among the league are happy to see the team go. The undeserved air of superiority is among lower-league American soccer fans is a blog for another time, but I believe that the constant nitpicking toward FCC belies an unspoken anxiety among USL fans. Things look good now, but that can all turn on a dime in lower-league soccer.
So what does the future look like for USL? Where I was overly optimistic only six months ago, my enthusiasm is now a little tempered.
USL is now morphing into a feeder league for MLS. While those uninformed or willfully ignorant of how the business of sports actually works will cry that this is an argument for promotion and relegation, the real world sees things differently. Teams go to USL, prove themselves from a market and/or business standpoint, and move on to the majors. Orlando City, Nashville SC, and FC Cincinnati have or will make the jump up to MLS. But is that the end of the shuffle? Nope.
Major League Soccer has always coveted the St. Louis market for some unknown reason. Recently the ownership group of Enterprise Rent-A-Car announced that they were working on a plan to bring MLS to St. Louis with a stadium plan that doesn't require (much) public money. Public money being what sunk the city's last MLS effort. Officials within the current USL team that calls St. Louis home are also involved in the project.
Phoenix (No. 12 media market in the nation) currently has a strong stadium plan, a strong ownership group and is located in a top media market in the country. Phoenix Rising to MLS isn't a matter of if but when.
Then there's a couple more questions about the future of several other USL teams. Sacramento, who is always the bridesmaid in MLS expansion, still has almost of its ducks in a row needing one more solid investor. The owner of the NFL's Charlotte Panthers has mentioned a desire to bring MLS to the other Queen City and Anthony Precourt taking his clown show to Austin has to worry investors in the USL franchise in the Texas capital. If PSV gets the Austin trees off the ground, that can't be good news for the minor league team.
Anyone actually believing that MLS is stopping expansion at 28; I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
There's a real possibility that by the time the 2026 World Cup rolls around, Phoenix, Charlotte, Austin, Sacramento, and St. Louis will all be playing in Major League Soccer. That's not counting a run at the big leagues by Tampa Bay Rowdies or Las Vegas.
Where does that leave USL? Only time will tell but hopefully USL has a plan. If it were up to me, the following cities/regions would be:
Since the beginning of the 2017 campaign, two USL teams/cities have been selected to become MLS expansion teams with the USL's flagship franchise, FC Cincinnati, starting play in the big leagues in 2019.
Judging by the shitposting about FC Cincinnati on social media and the USL subreddit, some among the league are happy to see the team go. The undeserved air of superiority is among lower-league American soccer fans is a blog for another time, but I believe that the constant nitpicking toward FCC belies an unspoken anxiety among USL fans. Things look good now, but that can all turn on a dime in lower-league soccer.
So what does the future look like for USL? Where I was overly optimistic only six months ago, my enthusiasm is now a little tempered.
USL is now morphing into a feeder league for MLS. While those uninformed or willfully ignorant of how the business of sports actually works will cry that this is an argument for promotion and relegation, the real world sees things differently. Teams go to USL, prove themselves from a market and/or business standpoint, and move on to the majors. Orlando City, Nashville SC, and FC Cincinnati have or will make the jump up to MLS. But is that the end of the shuffle? Nope.
Major League Soccer has always coveted the St. Louis market for some unknown reason. Recently the ownership group of Enterprise Rent-A-Car announced that they were working on a plan to bring MLS to St. Louis with a stadium plan that doesn't require (much) public money. Public money being what sunk the city's last MLS effort. Officials within the current USL team that calls St. Louis home are also involved in the project.
Phoenix (No. 12 media market in the nation) currently has a strong stadium plan, a strong ownership group and is located in a top media market in the country. Phoenix Rising to MLS isn't a matter of if but when.
Then there's a couple more questions about the future of several other USL teams. Sacramento, who is always the bridesmaid in MLS expansion, still has almost of its ducks in a row needing one more solid investor. The owner of the NFL's Charlotte Panthers has mentioned a desire to bring MLS to the other Queen City and Anthony Precourt taking his clown show to Austin has to worry investors in the USL franchise in the Texas capital. If PSV gets the Austin trees off the ground, that can't be good news for the minor league team.
Anyone actually believing that MLS is stopping expansion at 28; I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
There's a real possibility that by the time the 2026 World Cup rolls around, Phoenix, Charlotte, Austin, Sacramento, and St. Louis will all be playing in Major League Soccer. That's not counting a run at the big leagues by Tampa Bay Rowdies or Las Vegas.
Where does that leave USL? Only time will tell but hopefully USL has a plan. If it were up to me, the following cities/regions would be:
- Detroit - While soccer know-it-alls and fans of a certain intern team would cry foul, Detroit is the largest city in the country without professional soccer. Sure, the wood bat summer league team in Detroit is joining NPSL pro but a well-funded and well-marketed team in Detroit with regional rivals in Pittsburgh, Louisville, Indy (and a couple of cities I'll mention below) would have no issues drawing fans.
- Cleveland - There has been some speculation about USL expansion the the third of Ohio's Three Cs. With Cincinnati and Columbus hosting MLS teams, Cleveland sits alone as the largest city in the Buckeye State without a pro soccer team.
- Jacksonville - The Armada have all but abandoned the city. USL could easily tap in to an existing and proven market.
- Long Island - While David Villa works on his USL project in Queens, I believe there's an opportunity to move the Rough Riders up to the pro ranks.
- Buffalo - Not much else to say other than it's a big city that needs pro soccer.
- What about the West? - In my opinion, USL's best bet is to hope that Sacramento and Las Vegas never move up to MLS. Expansion options west of the Rockies are severely limited.
Will USL survive? Maybe. So far they've made sound investments but the history of American soccer is littered with defunct leagues and teams. Let's hope that USL can survive the loss of some of its key franchises.
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