In lieu of one of the giant Twitter threads that I'm (in)famous for, I thought a blog post was in order. Today Sports Illustrated soccer writer extraordinaire, Grant Wahl posted a short video in which he gives his opinion on promotion and relegation in the US. Grant is one of the more reasonable people within the pro/rel discussion and while I don't have a problem with his opinion overall, I do think that there are some things that Grant glosses over. In his defense, he only has two minutes to get his point across and that doesn't leave much time for nuance. However, since he put his opinion on the Internet, his points are open for rebuttal. Here's a few of his quotes with my retort.
Video Link here:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1111697029267218432
"I'd love to see unambitious (MLS) owner like Stan Kroenke of the Colorado Rapids pay the price for that lack of interest in his team"
This statement comes out of pro/rel theory 101 that holds to the myth that rich team owners:
- Give a crap about whether their team succeeds or not.
- Would actually be punished by relegation
Grant is smarter than this. Well, I hope he is. While it's nice to think that mean old rich uncle Stan would pay some sort of price if his team were relegated, reality is much more nuanced. Stan Kroenke, who is worth $8.8 billion, would not suffer one iota by the Rapids' decent down to USL (or whatever D2 league we're using in this fantasy world). Rather Stan would fold the club, declare it bankrupt, sell off anything valuable, and wash his hands of the whole enterprise. In the end, Stan wouldn't lose anything and, most likely, the fans in Colorado would lose a team.
"I'd rather see MLS owners be incentivized to introduce promotion and relegation by a business deal they accept rather than be forced to do so by a court case"
Here Grant makes a good point. While I never want to see the outdated standings gimmick that is promotion and relegation get anywhere near American soccer, I do agree that if it were to happen (it's not) it would have to be with a deal that MLS/USL owners can accept. You're going to need parachute payments, revenue guarantees, a palatable TV deal that protects major markets. In short, you'd have to solve every problem that currently makes pro/rel unworkable in the modern sports business ecosystem.
"I'd like to see promotion and relegation. MLS is not in danger of folding anymore..."
While Grant is technically correct. The best kind of correct. He's also discounting the fact that pro/rel would have to exist within the North American sports ecosystem. In this ecosystem, the vast majority of team sports leagues don't relegate ever. Purdue stays a part of the B1G, the White Sox are always going to be in MLB and the Browns will always be in the NFL. The entirety of the pro sports enterprise is predicated on market stability and with a few exceptions (large markets being permanently protected) leagues remain pretty stable over time. This stability drives the key revenue generators for leagues; media rights.
"I don't think MLS needs promotion and relegation to survive but I think it would be a net positive for the league and the sport here."
This is where Grant and I vehemently disagree. Going back to my previous statement, pro/rel is a completely foreign concept to American sports fans. Let's take my home team, Real Salt Lake for example. We're a mid-sized market but even here we have other options. Besides the fact that bad seasons cause attendance drops, how do you think the market would react if RSL was not only terrible, but then suffered the indignity of being kicked out of a league for a poor season? Even in England, where pro/rel is as ubiquitous as driving on the left side of the road, teams see an average of 20% decline in attendance after relegation. One could easily speculate that in a nation where relegation is a foreign concept that the drop in attendance would be in the 30-40% range. This, along with a necessary drop in the price of tickets to reflect the team's new status as a minor league outfit could (and most likely would) cause a huge drop in team revenues. RSL would have to cut costs which would mean losing the USL Monarchs and the NWSL Royals. A prolonged stint in the minors might even result in the elimination of the club's $100 million academy and training facility.
Even in England, relegated clubs are regularly faced with bankruptcy and liquidation. The sport's popularity does come along to save clubs across the pond but here in the USA it would be a different story.
Grant's a great reporter and seems like a nice guy, but on this subject, he and I are going to have to be on the complete opposite side of the coin.
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